The $60 Billion Bet With No Seat at the Table
SoftBank shares surged more than 20 percent Thursday and gained another 12 percent Friday — and the AI trade is getting expensive.
The rally was broad and the appetite for AI-linked stocks is real. But the bet driving it is drawing sharp pushback inside SoftBank and from credit markets alike. Bloomberg reported last week that some insiders have questioned whether Masayoshi Son has adequate oversight of his largest ever investment: a $60 billion commitment to OpenAI that gives the Japanese conglomerate roughly 13 percent of the AI laboratory, now valued at $852 billion — with no board seat or observer rights at OpenAI, a governance arrangement that contrasts with Son's previous major bets on Arm Holdings, Alibaba, and WeWork. Governance experts note that late-stage AI laboratory investments commonly restrict outside board representation, as labs seek to preserve operational independence during sensitive commercial transitions — though the scale of SoftBank's position makes the absence unusual even by that standard. S&P Global Ratings cut SoftBank's credit outlook to negative in March, warning that the loan-to-value ratio — debt relative to assets — was on track to cross above 35 percent, the threshold at which the agency would consider a downgrade. OpenAI now represents roughly 30 percent of SoftBank's investment portfolio, matching Arm, according to S&P.
If OpenAI stumbles — a delay in its planned IPO, a regulatory obstacle, a competitive setback — SoftBank's LTV ratio worsens beyond that threshold, the margin loans backed by OpenAI shares come under pressure, and Son's ability to fund the remaining $30 billion commitment narrows considerably. The $46 billion in unrealized gains becomes a question mark on a balance sheet whose other major positions were already liquidated to fund this one.
Reuters reported in December that Son has subordinated virtually all other SoftBank dealmaking to the OpenAI investment, with any deal above $50 million requiring his personal approval. When asked about a WeWork parallel in 2019 — where his enthusiasm for founder Adam Neumann led him to ignore governance warnings — Son said he had overestimated Neumann's good side and turned a blind eye to the problems.
The financial moves to fund the commitment have been large and systematic. SoftBank drew down a $20 billion bridge loan in April, primarily for the OpenAI investment, with $2.5 billion already repaid. Son sold SoftBank's entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia and offloaded $4.8 billion of its T-Mobile position. CFO Yoshimitsu Goto has said SoftBank may use its OpenAI shares as collateral for additional margin loans.
The results driving the rally are real. SoftBank posted record quarterly profit of $11.6 billion in the quarter ending March 2026, driven by a $46 billion gain at the Vision Fund nearly all attributable to OpenAI. Annual profit of 5 trillion yen was the highest ever reported by a Japanese company.
Those gains are paper profits on an unlisted position. The only meaningful exit ramp is an OpenAI IPO that has not yet cleared. Goto declined to comment on the timing. Son has said he never doubted Altman after their first conversation in 2019 and describes himself as a true believer.
The believers inside SoftBank are reportedly fewer — and Son is personally exposed in a way his previous mega-bets never left him.