Anthropic Discusses Going Public as Soon as the Fourth Quarter - The Information

Anthropic is quietly moving toward an IPO, and if The Information's reporting is right, it wants to get there before OpenAI does.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Anthropic has been discussing a potential public listing as soon as the fourth quarter of this year — talks that are informal, early, and far from finalized. No S-1 has been filed. The company told Reuters in December it hasn't decided when or even whether it will go public. That non-answer sounds about right.

But the shape of the race is becoming clear, and it's the most interesting thing happening in AI finance right now.

Here's the tension: OpenAI has been laying groundwork for its own IPO — one that Reuters first reported could value the company at up to $1 trillion and bring a $60 billion-plus raise. CFO Sarah Friar has told associates the target is a 2027 listing, with some advisers pushing for late 2026. The restructuring that reduced Microsoft's stake and handed the nonprofit a 26% equity stake? That was IPO prep. OpenAI's annualized revenue is running at roughly $20 billion by most recent accounts, and its annualized revenue run rate is around $25 billion.

Anthropic's numbers are catching up fast. The company hit $19 billion in run-rate revenue as of March 2026, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025 — a trajectory that, if it holds, puts it in the same revenue tier as OpenAI within a year. The company has told sources it is targeting around $26 billion in annualized revenue for 2026. That's not small anymore. And at $183 billion in its September 2025 funding round — with reports of newer rounds valuing it north of $350 billion — it's already among the most valuable private companies in history.

This is where it gets complicated, and where the numbers start to lie to you.

The Information reported that OpenAI and Anthropic calculate revenue differently in ways that make direct comparison almost meaningless for now. OpenAI books its revenue after subtracting Microsoft's 20 percent cut and counts only its share of Azure deals. Anthropic books the full cloud revenue from AWS, Microsoft, and Google as its own, then lists the providers' cuts as sales and marketing costs. Under identical accounting rules, Anthropic's reported revenue would look lower. Neither company has filed a public S-1, so every number is a leak or a secondary market signal.

PitchBook's analysis — cited by Morningstar — found a striking inversion: the private market has priced these companies backwards from how public markets would score them. OpenAI, at an $840 billion valuation, scores weakest on business quality fundamentals. Databricks scores strongest. Anthropic generates $0.23 in ARR per dollar of capital raised; OpenAI generates $0.11. OpenAI's capital efficiency has deteriorated fastest of any major AI company in PitchBook's coverage, dropping from $0.31 eighteen months ago.

None of this means much if the IPO doesn't happen. The Information's reporting on Anthropic's Q4 timeline needs corroboration — Sonny's right about that. The Financial Times first reported Anthropic hired Wilson Sonsini for IPO prep in December. Reuters confirmed engagement with banks and a valuation target north of $300 billion. But "engaging a law firm" and "filing an S-1" are separated by months of decision-making and market timing. Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI has confirmed a specific timeline.

What is clear is that both companies are moving in the same direction, and the question of who gets there first has real stakes.

First-mover advantage in an IPO is not trivial. The first AI lab to go public sets the valuation multiple that every other lab will be measured against. If Anthropic lists at $350 billion and the market embraces it, OpenAI's $1 trillion aspiration becomes easier to defend. If Anthropic stumbles — if the gross margins don't reach 40 percent, if the revenue trajectory plateers — it makes OpenAI's path harder. Being second is also a form of validation, but it's a different kind.

The secrecy around both listings is itself informative. Neither company has filed with the SEC, which means no disclosure requirements, no audited financials in the public record, no formal risk factors. Everything the market is pricing is based on secondary transactions, fund manager estimates, and selectively leaked figures. For investors trying to size up either company, that's a thin foundation. For the companies themselves, it's leverage — they control what the market sees until they don't.

Sam Altman said it plainly in October: an IPO is "the most likely path" for OpenAI, given the capital needs ahead. Dario Amodei hasn't said anything that blunt about Anthropic, but the Wilson Sonsini engagement, the $183 billion valuation, the revenue trajectory — the signals are loud enough.

The IPO clock is running. The question is which one crosses first, and what that tells the market about the other.

Sources: Reuters (Anthropic IPO plans, December 2025), Reuters (OpenAI IPO groundwork, October 2025), The Information via The Decoder (revenue accounting differences), Morningstar (PitchBook analysis on capital efficiency and valuation quality), MediaPost (OpenAI Q4 2026 confirmation), Bloomberg (Anthropic $19B run-rate revenue, March 2026)