Kalshi and The Weather Company built a two-sided deal: one settles the weather bets, the other shows the odds

Kalshi and The Weather Company announced a partnership on Thursday that ties the two companies together on both sides of a weather bet: The Weather Company will feed the data that settles Kalshi's weather markets, and Kalshi will hand over the live probability odds that will now appear inside the Weather Channel app and on weather.com.

Kalshi is a real-money prediction market where users trade contracts tied to event outcomes, from Federal Reserve decisions to Olympic medals. Its climate and weather category has grown 500% year over year and is on pace for $1.1 billion in annualized volume, according to a press release. The deal is the first time one of the country's largest weather brands feeds a commercial prediction market and carries that market's odds back to a mainstream audience.

"Weather is one of the fastest-growing and most crucial categories at Kalshi because it affects everyone — from individuals and businesses to governments," said Will Brackett, Kalshi's head of partnerships.

The pitch on the business side is hedging. Kalshi is leaning into examples that read like a small-business owner's worst summer: an ice cream shop selling forward contracts on a cool August, a logistics firm pricing in extra precipitation, a marathon organizer locking in race-day conditions. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the two companies are also exploring new markets tied to specific sporting events, including local ski conditions and the weather on marathon race days.

The mechanism is the part most coverage will skip. A prediction market needs an oracle: a source both sides trust to call the result. Most prediction-market categories, including elections, sports, and economics, fight over whose feed is canonical. Weather is one of the few categories where the underlying variable is publicly observable atmospheric science, which is why Kalshi has long framed its weather books as nearly impossible to insider trade. The deal makes The Weather Company that oracle for some of Kalshi's books.

That swap is the friction worth watching. Markets like "Highest temperature in New York City today?" already include notes saying that starting Aug. 14, the market will be settled using data from The Weather Company, replacing the National Weather Service as its previous source. The NWS is a neutral public feed. The Weather Company is now a commercial counterparty whose parent also runs the app that surfaces Kalshi's odds and earns a fee when readers click through to open a Kalshi account.

Weather.com's standard disclosure on the partnership reads: "We provide certain data Kalshi uses to resolve markets, and Kalshi provides market data featured in content like this article." The same disclosure says The Weather Company can earn a fee if readers use its links to open a Kalshi account and trade. Weather.com has already been folding Kalshi market data into its editorial coverage, including a recent piece on July tying for the hottest month on record that ran Kalshi's probability data for the market "Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?"

The category itself is a stress test. Prediction markets have spent two years fighting over whether they are trading venues, gambling products, financial instruments, or information services. Weather is the one vertical where the data-integrity problem is structurally solvable, because the answer is in a thermometer or a radar return, and where businesses have a real, recurring reason to hedge. Whether the partnership reads as a category-fitting move or as a casino ad inside a forecast depends on which side of the disclosure the reader is looking at.

The Aug. 14 settlement switch is now days away. From there, the sports-tied markets the Journal reported, including race-day marathons and local ski conditions, either reach the Kalshi order book or stay on the prototype shelf.