NITI Aayog's 65 page roadmap targets chip design, advanced packaging, and compound semiconductors—not a leading edge fab. The bet is a deliberate lane choice, not a head to head with TSMC.
For a procurement engineer in Detroit or a supply chain planner in Stuttgart, India's 2035 chip plan is not a geopolitics story. It is a sourcing roadmap. The country's new 65-page strategy from government policy think tank NITI Aayog, published in May 2026 and covered by EE Times in a 06.09.2026 fireside chat with senior India correspondent Nitin Dahad, is the most concrete signal yet of where India is realistically going to show up in their diversification plans.
The headline number is $120 billion to $150 billion. That is the size of the semiconductor value chain NITI Aayog projects India can build by 2035 if execution matches strategy. It is a forecast, not a budget line. NITI Aayog is a think tank, not a funding agency, and the report, "Future of India's Semiconductor Industry," is a strategy recommendation, not enacted industrial policy.
What the strategy targets is narrower than the usual "India wants to be a chip power" framing suggests. It does not promise a leading-edge fab. It concentrates on three domains: mature-node chip design, OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) and advanced packaging, and compound semiconductors built on wide-bandgap materials such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN). The report calls for India to become a top-three global OSAT player and a trusted supplier of advanced packaging and wide-bandgap materials, while building a chip design workforce capable of leading in mature-node logic and specialty analog and mixed-signal parts.
That choice is the story. Mature-node logic (chips built on 28nm and older processes) and specialty analog are the unglamorous workhorses of cars, industrial systems, power grids, and consumer electronics. India's existing design talent, with a deep base of engineers who already work on chip architecture for global firms, has its strongest foothold in these domains. Building on that base is a fundamentally different bet than building a fab would be.
The materials lane is similarly deliberate. SiC and GaN are the substrate of choice for high-voltage power electronics in electric vehicles, renewable inverters, and grid applications. The report identifies these as segments with fast-growing global demand, and India's existing chemistry and materials processing base gives the country a credible entry point that NITI Aayog explicitly names.
NITI Aayog frames the strategic outcome as "enduring global dependence." The phrase is unusual for a government strategy document. It is also the clearest tell that the report's authors understand the lane they have chosen. The goal is to be the supplier that global buyers cannot easily replace, not to win a race that the country's capital base and ecosystem depth make unwinnable on the timeline.
The roadmap is not a guarantee. Past Indian semiconductor ambitions have not gone well: the 2013-era fab push produced years of headlines and no working facility. The 2021-2025 incentive package brought in some assembly and test commitments, but at a scale well below original targets. Skepticism is warranted on three fronts. OSAT and advanced packaging are still capital-intensive, with new advanced packaging facilities running into the billions of dollars each. Trusted supplier status in SiC and GaN requires years of automotive and industrial qualification cycles, not announcements. And the gap between "Indian engineers doing design work for global firms" and "Indian-headquartered firms owning leading product roadmaps and IP" is wider than the report acknowledges.
What is genuinely different this time is the lane choice. The roadmap openly refuses the leading-edge race, builds on a real design workforce, and targets the segments where India's chemistry and packaging ecosystem are credible. Those are the parts most likely to age well. The execution risk sits in the parts the report does not dwell on: capital, qualification cycles, and ecosystem depth.
For procurement teams and supply chain planners making sourcing decisions today, the practical takeaway is straightforward. By 2035, India is realistically positioned to be a credible second source in mature-node design services, advanced packaging, and SiC/GaN materials. It is not positioned to be a primary source for leading-edge logic on any near-term horizon. The $120 billion to $150 billion target is a ceiling, not a floor, and the report's authors know it.
What to watch over the next 18 months: at least one large Indian OSAT or advanced packaging project reaching final investment decision with a named anchor customer. A credible SiC or GaN materials expansion announced with capacity numbers in tonnes, not press releases. Movement on the design side measured by an Indian-headquartered firm shipping a leading mature-node or specialty analog part designed and owned domestically. And the next Indian Union Budget, which will say more about real capital commitment than any 65-page strategy can.