AIBRIEF
For the first time in over a decade, coal's share of U.S. generation rose in 2025 even as natural gas slipped, a federal report says, citing AI data centers and hotter summers as drivers.
For the first time in over a decade, the share of U.S. electricity that came from coal rose last year, according to the Energy Information Administration's annual power-sector data released this week. Total U.S. generation also climbed for the second year in a row, ending a long stretch of roughly flat demand.
The EIA report names two reasons: the rapid build-out of AI data centers, which pull large blocks of baseload power around the clock, and hotter summers that pushed air-conditioning load higher. At the same time, fuel costs flipped the merit order. Coal became more competitive with natural gas, so utilities ran coal plants harder and slowed scheduled retirements.
Steve Piper, director of North American power and renewables research at S&P Global Energy, noted that the data center load is large and steady, which pulls other generation into a different dispatch order. Rob Gramlich said Western utilities are racing to add new power plants and high-voltage transmission lines, but those projects can take years to license and build.
Coal plant retirements are slowing, with many units being extended beyond their planned shutdown dates. Analysts expect continued near-term reliance on natural gas while new generation and transmission come online.
The long-term question is whether renewables and new transmission can scale fast enough to meet rising demand and bring carbon emissions back down before the next EIA report lands.