Blue Origin Fixed Its Rocket. The Customer Already Switched.

Blue Origin has finished investigating why its New Glenn rocket failed in April, and the Federal Aviation Administration has cleared the vehicle to fly again. That should be the story. It is not.

On May 7 PCMag, three weeks before Blue Origin announced its investigation was complete, AST SpaceMobile announced it would launch three replacement BlueBird satellites aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 in mid-June. The customer whose satellite New Glenn stranded in April did not wait for the fix. It went to the competitor.

AST SpaceMobile lost its BlueBird 7 spacecraft on April 19 SpaceNews when New Glenn's second stage suffered a cryogenic leak that froze a hydraulic line and reduced thrust during the upper stage's second burn. The satellite separated from the rocket in an orbit too low to recover from. It burned up in the atmosphere PCMag. AST confirmed the loss, stating the cost would be recovered under its insurance policy SpaceNews.

Blue Origin completed its investigation in five weeks and identified nine corrective actions, which the FAA approved SpaceNews. Dave Limp, the company's chief executive, posted video on May 22 of a new vehicle being prepared for launch. "Next stop integrated hotfire," he wrote.

AST's response tells a different story. The company has $1.2 billion in contracted revenue SatNews and a constellation plan that requires 45 to 60 operational satellites by the end of 2026. The BlueBird 7 loss set that schedule back. AST has 32 next-generation BlueBird satellites in advanced stages of assembly at its Texas manufacturing facility PCMag. The three satellites launching on Falcon 9 in June are Block 2 units, each carrying a 223-square-meter phased-array antenna capable of 120 Mbps peak throughput, connecting directly to standard 4G and 5G smartphones SatNews.

AST had previously targeted four additional orbital launches by the end of the first quarter of 2026. None occurred PCMag. The company's constellation depends on a launch cadence that New Glenn, in its first three flights, has not yet demonstrated it can sustain. Scott Wisniewski, AST's chief strategy officer, said on a May 11 earnings call that "an upper-stage anomaly like this is not uncommon early in programs," and that AST remained optimistic about returning to the pad SpaceNews. Thirteen days later, AST announced its SpaceX pivot.

The commercial launch market is not grading Blue Origin on historical precedent. Each missed manifest opportunity compounds the flight-record gap that NASA, the Space Force, and national security customers require before committing to a new provider. NASA has not yet certified New Glenn for Human Landing System missions, a process that requires demonstrated operational reliability across multiple consecutive flights. Every quarter that New Glenn flies less than its competitors is a quarter that certification slips, and with it, Blue Origin's path into government mission portfolios. AST's decision to move three satellites to Falcon 9 rather than wait for NG-4 is not a contract cancellation. It is behavior that speaks regardless of what the paperwork says.

Blue Origin is not standing still. NG-4 is being prepared. The corrective actions address the specific cryogenic plumbing failure mode that caused the April incident SpaceNews. Five weeks from failure to cleared return-to-flight is fast by historical aerospace standards, comparable to the pace NASA and Rocketdyne moved after the Apollo 6/Saturn V J-2 engine anomalies in 1968 NSS. AST has a multi-launch agreement with Blue Origin still in place, according to its May 7 announcement, and the door is technically open for future New Glenn flights. The company is not burning the contract. It is, however, not waiting on it.

The practical consequence for Blue Origin is a slower path to the flight history that attracts government customers. NASA certifications, national security space launch contracts, and commercial credibility all require demonstrated reliability. New Glenn has logged two successful booster landings and one upper-stage failure across three flights. The vehicle is young. The market is not patient.

The three BlueBird satellites are scheduled to launch on Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral in mid-June. Blue Origin will fly again. The question the April failure and AST's pivot have not quite answered is whether anyone will be waiting when it does.