AIBRIEF
A Basel Action Network report projects AI data center hardware turnover will fill enough shipping containers to encircle the globe six times over 25 years.
The Basel Action Network projects the AI infrastructure buildout will generate enough e-waste over the next 25 years to fill shipping containers that, lined up, would encircle the Earth six times. That figure comes from "The Coming AI Waste Wave," a white paper released this month by BAN co-founder Jim Puckett.
The driver is fleet turnover, not chat volume. AI hardware refresh cycles, typically three to five years for cutting-edge training clusters, retire functional equipment to make way for newer chips. BAN argues prevailing industry estimates of AI's disposal footprint are 40 to 60 times too low, putting AI on track to roughly triple annual global e-waste generation by mid-century.
Only about one-fifth of global e-waste is currently properly managed. The stream already contains lead, mercury, cadmium, forever chemicals, and valuable metals. Puckett told The Guardian the projections should be read as a floor. Resource Recycling notes his separate $7 trillion estimate for AI infrastructure spending between 2025 and 2030, a figure BAN presents as Puckett's own calculation.
What remains unknown: how much of the projected fleet will be refurbished, recycled, or designed for disassembly rather than landfilled. Procurement contracts and refresh policies set in the next several years will shape the 25-year curve.